Monday, August 29, 2016

Season Prediction Part I: worst case scenario

The closer we get to this season, the more angry I get about last year. We blew it. We wasted a once in a decade Defense and couldn't get out of our own way in multiple games. Addazio went through excuses as fast as he went through quarterbacks. Bad luck and bad bounces are part of sports, but last year went beyond being unlucky. We were not well coached or well managed. As I put together how bad things might be this season, I started to wonder what happens if we have two terrible seasons in a row. Let's hope it doesn't get to that.

As a reminder, this is not what I think will happen. This is more of a "what if." My real prediction will come later in the week.

Worst Case Scenario

Georgia Tech. Loss. There is huge risk in starting the season against Georgia Tech in a unique road game. We're not ready for their offense and it is a long flight home.

at UMass. Win. This is technically a road game, but the closeness and the opponent make for a nice bounce back after the rough start to the season.

at Virginia Tech. Loss. The Hokies are entering a period of uncertainty, but I still think they have more talent than BC and I still think Lane Stadium will be a tough place to play.

Wagner. Win. Another soft game to pad the stats and the W-L record.

Buffalo. Win. They're more respectable than Wagner, but even in a bad year I can't see BC losing this game.

Clemson. Loss. It will be a national game on campus against a probable Top 2 team. In a bad season they crush us by 28.

Syracuse. Loss. I think 'Cuse will be a mess this year too, but in a bad season I could see BC screwing this one up. If the season does play out like this, morale will be incredibly low at this point.

at NC State. Loss. The Offense still struggles and we now have a QB controversy...again.

Louisville. Loss. It is a defensive slog like last year. It is a loss like last year.

at Florida State. Loss. We play them close again, but there is no way we are winning this one.

UConn. Win. The losing streak ends. But no one feels great about where things stand.

at Wake Forest. Loss. Addazio is still unable to end the ACC losing streak.

This would leave BC 4-8 (0-8 in the ACC). What gets me worked up is that I could see Addazio surviving this sort of terrible season. No other Power 5 team would let a coach go 0-16 in conference over two years, but I think BC is in a weird position. I think Bates is tied to Addazio. I think some around the decision will think that part of the problem is never letting a coach hang around long enough to get a full roster. If it does get this bad, I will be banging the drum as loud as possible (not that it means anything). I don't think it will get this bad, but after last year I can't count on anything.

Sunday, August 28, 2016

BC picks four captains

After messing around with "game day" captains for a few seasons, Addazio decided to return to BC's old ways. The team voted on four captains who will represent the team for the entire season. The honored four are Truman Gutapfel, John Johnson, Tyler Rouse and Myles Willis.

I don't think captains or the idea of game day vs season captains wins any games for a team like BC. But I do think that having four elected leaders can hep build a better team culture. I hope these guys set a good example on the practice fields and the locker room and help BC get out of its rut.

I also hope that these captains set a good example while the team is in Ireland. We don't need any nonsense in a foreign country just as he season starts.

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Welcome to life as a BC fan

BC welcomed the incoming freshmen to the BC family this weekend. It is a nice gesture and helps build community and pride. While there is so much more to BC than just sports, I don't know if any of these kids know what they have bought into as BC fans. There will be highs and lows and lots of wasted emotion, but ultimately it will be fun. We wouldn't keep watching if it were not fun. And hopefully these new members of the BC fan community will see more success and championships than those fans who came before.

Friday, August 26, 2016

Where should BC play next?

With Cal and Hawaii playing in Australia and BC getting ready for Ireland, I started to wonder about future BC road trips. If money is right, there is no reason why BC shouldn't consider future football games abroad. It raises the profile of the school, it generates some fan excitement, it gets a good TV slot and most importantly you can sell it to recruits.

I have mentioned Liverpool before. Given Fenway Sports Groups relationship with Liverpool and Anfield, BC could easily set up a game. I am sure ESPN would throw some extra money at us. The downside is that it might not have the same appeal to fans or other potential opponents.

Sydney, Australia seems like an interesting choice. If this Cal-Hawaii game proves successful, there will be more trips down under. It is a long way from Boston, but it might make for an interesting locale.

Toronto held bowl games, but no one really attempted anything in Montreal. I think it could be interesting, plus it is not that far from Boston. Our fans could make the trip.

There are still many American expats in Germany. There used to getting NFL games. Maybe a college game could draw well.

BC played in Tokyo once before. Why not go back? Like Australia, it would involve a long trip.

Thursday, August 25, 2016

It is all about Addazio

As I read more and more previews, the same issues are mentioned. Can BC's Defense sustain its dominance without Don Brown? Who will step up at QB? Can the Offensive Line come together?  Most of these previews also mention how many close games BC lost last year. (I assume someone from BC is providing that stat.) To me all these issues are interchangable. Every team heads into the season with one or two glaring concerns or an assistant to replace. To me the biggest question is: what has Addazio learned?

Last year was a disaster. Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. While the team was young and hit with injuries, there were still huge, painful, shameful coaching mistakes that cost BC games. As a reminder:

  • the cluster at the end of the Wake Forest game.
  • the questionable clock management against Syracuse. 
  • Sticking with Fadule too long against Notre Dame. 
  • Sticking with Flutie too long against Duke. 
  • But to me, the biggest failure was the inability to cobble together some sort of offense with one of the QBs. 

Addazio changed both coordinators, brought in trusted friend and mentor Paul Pasqualoni and revamped his recruiting. The schedule is manageable. There are no real excuses. If BC doesn't bounce back in a major way then Addazio's story is over. He won't get fired, but we will know what his true potential is. I am still hoping for him to be a passionate TOB. Let's hope he's not just a harder working Spaz.

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

More Bowl predictions and other links

Campus Insiders predicts BC will get invited to the Quick Lane Bowl, which is the game played in Detroit on December 26. Remember the outrage when we last went there? I think most people would be happy with it now.

The Washington Post expects BC to win six games.

BC is now in full preparation for Georgia Tech.

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

What Georgia Tech fans are saying about the Ireland trip [unscientific research]

Living in Atlanta, I know lots of Georgia Tech fans and listen to plenty of Atlanta sports radio. Do you know what Jacket fans are saying about the trip to Ireland? Nothing. There is no buzz and little excitement among my crowd. I only know of one person going. Now admittedly, I don't know every Georgia Tech fan in the world and I know that there will be plenty of Jacket supporters over there. My point is that playing the game in Ireland against BC has not broken into the wider sports discussion.

Georgia Tech's struggles to get attention mirror many of BC's issues. While Atlanta might not be as passionate about their professional teams as Boston fans, the Jackets compete with the Falcons and Braves for attention, plus the Georgia Bulldogs and all the SEC fans in the area. If you listen to local Sports Radio, you hear much more on Georgia and the other Top 25 matchups opening weekend than you do about Ireland.

When there is talk, the consensus seems to be that GT must come back with a win. That travelling that far only to lose to a winless ACC team would be a demoralizing way to start the season. One thing of note about the little I have read and heard: GT is practicing and scrimmaging early in the morning so that their body clocks are ready for the 7 AM kickoff.

Just because there isn't much early excitement about the game doesn't mean it is a bad idea or lost cause. I am glad BC tried something new and the unique timeslot on the opening weekend helps raise awareness. It will probably be BC's highest rated day game this season. But the general apathy around the game here is just a reminder that if BC ever wants to be top of mind in Boston (or nationally) they need to win more.